IERPP cautions GoldBod: Ghana gold export math discrepancy explained – Nsemkeka
Ghana’s gold export figures for April 2025 raise serious questions. The government allocated $279 million to buy gold from small-scale miners, yet reported $897.6 million in exports, a 220% increase in revenue.
This breakdown examines whether the math adds up or if hidden factors explain the discrepancy.
Simplified Math Breakdown
What $279 million can actually buy?
- Gold Price (April 2025): $96,560 per kg
- Calculated Purchase:
$279,000,000 ÷ $96,560/kg ≈ 2,890 kg (2.89 tonnes)
Problem:
Ghana exported 9,295 kg (9.295 tonnes)—6.4 tonnes more than the fund could buy.
Government’s Promise vs. Reality
- Promised Purchase: 3 tonnes/week = 12 tonnes/month
- Actual Export: 9.295 tonnes
- Missing Gold: 12 – 9.295 = 2.7 tonnes
Contradiction:
Even the promised 12 tonnes exceeds what $279M could buy (only 2.89 tonnes).
Revenue Mismatch
- Expected Revenue (from $279M fund):
2.89 tonnes × $96,560/kg = $279M (just breaking even). - Actual Export Revenue: $897.6M
- Discrepancy: $897.6M – $279M = $618.6M extra
Question:
Where did the additional $600M+ come from?
Possible Explanations
- Other Gold Sources: Large mining companies contributed (not small miners).
- Old Stockpiles: Sold stored gold from reserves.
- Exchange Rate Trick: Cedi depreciation inflated dollar earnings.
- Overstated Numbers: Misreporting or creative accounting.
The numbers do not logically align. If the government only spent $279M, the exports should have been $279M, not $897M. The $600M+ gap suggests:
- Unreported gold sources, or
- Inflated export figures.