Ghana’s fiscal position to improve to 4-5% of GDP in 2025 – Databank Research – Nsemkeka
Ghana’s fiscal position is expected to improve to a 4–6% deficit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the first half of 2025, Databank Research has revealed.
This will be driven by procedural hold-ups on arrears clearance and enhanced International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing, including an anticipated US$370 million disbursement.
“With a strong start in revenue mobilisation and targeted CAPEX [capital expenditure] cuts, we believe the primary balance will improve from the 3.9% deficit recorded in 2024. By allocating GH¢13bn towards arrears clearance against a GH¢67bn backlog, we see sufficient fiscal space to narrow the overall deficit from 7.9% of GDP”, it stated.
“We also believe that effective implementation of the Commitment Control and Compliance League Table for Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs) will play a key role in enforcing fiscal discipline and supporting tighter deficit targets”, it pointed out.
Ghana’s short-term external outlook remains favourable
Databank also expects Ghana’s short-term external outlook to remain favourable, supported by sustained current account surpluses, with the full operationalisation of GOLDBOD further anchoring this position.
“With improved reserve buffers and the anticipated GH¢370 million ECF disbursement, we project gross international reserves to exceed GH¢10 billion by mid-year, driven by strong gold, cash crops, and remittance inflows. External activity remains resilient, underpinned by expanding trade agreements with the UAE, China, and Switzerland, while limited US trade exposure mitigates tariff risks.”
“Overall, we maintain a positive Q2 ’25 [Quarter 2] outlook, reinforced by growing intercontinental trade and improving capital account flows”, it added.